Research group · ECS
Atmospheric Dynamics Group
Investigating the fluid mechanics and thermodynamics that drive atmospheric circulation from the convective scale to the planetary jet streams.
Overview
The Atmospheric Dynamics Group addresses fundamental questions about the organisation and predictability of atmospheric flow. The group's work spans a wide range of scales: from the microphysics of cloud droplet nucleation and convective updraft dynamics, through the mesoscale organisation of precipitation systems, to the baroclinic instabilities that generate the extratropical cyclone families responsible for most mid-latitude weather. At the planetary scale, the group studies teleconnection patterns, stratosphere-troposphere coupling, and the dynamics of blocking events that cause prolonged extreme weather.
The group's modelling toolkit includes high-resolution large-eddy simulation (LES), regional climate models, and idealised general circulation models (GCMs). It also makes extensive use of reanalysis products and observational datasets from radiosonde networks, satellite retrievals, and Doppler radar composites. Machine learning is used both as a diagnostic tool (to identify circulation modes from large archives) and as an emulator for expensive parameterisation schemes.
The group is a member of the Earth & Climate Systems division and partners regularly with the Climate Informatics Group on data-driven approaches to atmospheric prediction and with the Hydrology & Earth Surface Lab on land-atmosphere coupling and orographic precipitation. Computational work runs on the Meridian HPC Cluster.
Research themes
- Baroclinic instability and extratropical cyclone life cycles in a warming climate
- Convective organisation: from isolated updrafts to mesoscale convective systems
- Stratosphere-troposphere coupling and its influence on surface weather predictability
- Atmospheric blocking: dynamics, predictability, and projected changes under global warming
- Orographic precipitation and mountain wave dynamics
- Neural-network emulators for atmospheric convection and boundary-layer parameterisation
Current projects
Active research programmes, 2024–2027
Project · VX-ADG-01
BlockFreq: Atmospheric Blocking in a 2°C World
Using a 40-member initial-condition ensemble of a high-resolution coupled GCM to quantify the change in blocking frequency, duration, and geographic distribution under 1.5°C and 2°C of global mean warming. Particular focus on the North Atlantic and European domain, where projections remain highly uncertain.
Funding: VIAS Research Excellence Grant · 570,000 cr
Project · VX-ADG-02
ConvLearn: Machine-Learning Parameterisation of Deep Convection
Training physics-guided neural networks to replace the mass-flux convective parameterisation in a regional climate model, using outputs from a library of 200 high-resolution LES runs spanning a range of environmental conditions. Evaluates impacts on precipitation bias and tropical variability.
Funding: External consortium grant VX-CONV-23 · 690,000 cr
Project · VX-ADG-03
StratoLink: Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in Extended-Range Forecasts
Diagnosing the dynamical pathways through which sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events influence surface pressure patterns up to 6 weeks later. Develops a statistical post-processing framework that uses real-time stratospheric state as a predictor for North Atlantic surface weather regimes.
Funding: VIAS–Industry Collaborative Fund · 325,000 cr
Selected publications
- Romero A., Hakkarainen J., Lüpke S. "Projected changes in North Atlantic blocking frequency under 2°C warming: sensitivity to model resolution and sea-ice forcing." VIAS Journal of Climate 37(8), 2024. DOI: 10.veyra/VX-4476
- Romero A., Peña T. "Physics-guided neural network emulators for deep convection in regional climate models." Veyra Geophysical Research Letters 51(3), 2023. DOI: 10.veyra/VX-4237
- Lüpke S., Romero A. "Stratosphere-troposphere coupling following sudden stratospheric warmings: a composite analysis of 70 years of reanalysis data." VIAS Atmospheric Science 18, 2023. DOI: 10.veyra/VX-4088
- Hakkarainen J., Romero A. "Baroclinic wave life cycles in the ERA5 era: trends and links to jet stream variability." Veyra Dynamics of Atmospheres 12(4), 2022. DOI: 10.veyra/VX-3901
- Romero A., Whitlock C. "Orographic precipitation enhancement over complex terrain: LES constraints for a mesoscale parameterisation." VIAS Hydrometeorology 23(5), 2021. DOI: 10.veyra/VX-3677
- Peña T., Romero A. "Mountain wave breaking and its contribution to free-tropospheric turbulence in the lee of the Veyra Ranges (fictional)." VIAS Atmospheric Research 8, 2020. DOI: 10.veyra/VX-3441
People
Postdoctoral researchers: Dr. Juhani Hakkarainen, Dr. Sophia Lüpke, Dr. Tomás Peña.
PhD students: Rosamund Ellery, Kwame Adjei, Ingrid Thorvaldsen, Lena Vortmeyer, Cormac Brannigan, Yuki Takahashi, Fatou Diallo, Nadezhda Veselova.
Research staff: Dr. Oluwatobi Adeleke (HPC liaison), Gundula Frisch (data management), Marc Petitjean (instrumentation engineer).